Statistical Investigation of Road and Railway Hazardous Materials Transportation Safety

Transportation of hazardous materials (hazmat) in the United States (U.S.) constituted 22.8% of the total tonnage transported in 2012 with an estimated value of more than 2.3 billion dollars. As such, hazmat transportation is a significant economic activity in the U.S. However, hazmat transportation exposes people and environment to the infrequent but potentially severe consequences of incidents resulting in hazmat release. Trucks and trains carried 63.7% of the hazmat in the U.S. in 2012 and are the major foci of this dissertation. The main research objectives were 1) identification and quantification of the effects of different factors on occurrence and consequences of hazmat-related incidents, towards identifying effective policies and countermeasures for improving safety and; 2) quantifying components of risk of hazmat transportation for costs prediction, planning purposes, or short-term decision-making. A comprehensive review of literature, study framework, and available data led to identification of six foci for this dissertation: 1) estimation of hazmat release statistical models for railroad incidents; 2) estimation of rollover and hazmat release statistical models for Cargo Tank Truck (CTT) crashes; 3) analyzing hazmat-involved crashes at highway-rail grade crossings (HRGCs); 4) model-based and non-model-based methods for classifying hazmat release from trains and CTTs; 5) estimation of macroscopic-level statistical models for frequency and severity of rail-based crude oil release incidents; and 6) estimation of statistical models for types and consequences of rail-based crude oil release incidents. Some of the findings of this research include: train derailments increased hazmat release probability more than other incident types; non-collision CTT crashes were more likely to result in rollovers, while rolling over increased the likelihood of hazmat release; at HRGCs, flashing signal lights were associated with lower hazmat release probability from trucks; increase in volume and distance of crude oil shipped from one state to another led to greater frequency and severity of incidents between the two states; and in rail-based crude oil release incidents, non-accident releases were associated with higher probability of gas dispersion, and lower probability of fire and explosion. Based on the results, recommendations regarding policies and countermeasures for improving safety are provided. Advisor: Aemal Khatta

Statistical Investigation of Road and Railway Hazardous Materials Transportation Safety

Transportation of hazardous materials (hazmat) in the United States (U.S.) constituted 22.8% of the total tonnage transported in 2012 with an estimated value of more than 2.3 billion dollars. As such, hazmat transportation is a significant economic activity in the U.S. However, hazmat transportation exposes people and environment to the infrequent but potentially severe consequences of incidents resulting in hazmat release. Trucks and trains carried 63.7% of the hazmat in the U.S. in 2012 and are the major foci of this dissertation. The main research objectives were 1) identification and quantification of the effects of different factors on occurrence and consequences of hazmat-related incidents, towards identifying effective policies and countermeasures for improving safety and; 2) quantifying components of risk of hazmat transportation for costs prediction, planning purposes, or short-term decision-making. A comprehensive review of literature, study framework, and available data led to identification of six foci for this dissertation: 1) estimation of hazmat release statistical models for railroad incidents; 2) estimation of rollover and hazmat release statistical models for Cargo Tank Truck (CTT) crashes; 3) analyzing hazmat-involved crashes at highway-rail grade crossings (HRGCs); 4) model-based and non-model-based methods for classifying hazmat release from trains and CTTs; 5) estimation of macroscopic-level statistical models for frequency and severity of rail-based crude oil release incidents; and 6) estimation of statistical models for types and consequences of rail-based crude oil release incidents. Some of the findings of this research include: train derailments increased hazmat release probability more than other incident types; non-collision CTT crashes were more likely to result in rollovers, while rolling over increased the likelihood of hazmat release; at HRGCs, flashing signal lights were associated with lower hazmat release probability from trucks; increase in volume and distance of crude oil shipped from one state to another led to greater frequency and severity of incidents between the two states; and in rail-based crude oil release incidents, non-accident releases were associated with higher probability of gas dispersion, and lower probability of fire and explosion. Based on the results, recommendations regarding policies and countermeasures for improving safety are provided. Advisor: Aemal Khatta

Statistical Investigation of Road and Railway Hazardous Materials Transportation Safety

Transportation of hazardous materials (hazmat) in the United States (U.S.) constituted 22.8% of the total tonnage transported in 2012 with an estimated value of more than 2.3 billion dollars. As such, hazmat transportation is a significant economic activity in the U.S. However, hazmat transportation exposes people and environment to the infrequent but potentially severe consequences of incidents resulting in hazmat release. Trucks and trains carried 63.7% of the hazmat in the U.S. in 2012 and are the major foci of this dissertation. The main research objectives were 1) identification and quantification of the effects of different factors on occurrence and consequences of hazmat-related incidents, towards identifying effective policies and countermeasures for improving safety and; 2) quantifying components of risk of hazmat transportation for costs prediction, planning purposes, or short-term decision-making. A comprehensive review of literature, study framework, and available data led to identification of six foci for this dissertation: 1) estimation of hazmat release statistical models for railroad incidents; 2) estimation of rollover and hazmat release statistical models for Cargo Tank Truck (CTT) crashes; 3) analyzing hazmat-involved crashes at highway-rail grade crossings (HRGCs); 4) model-based and non-model-based methods for classifying hazmat release from trains and CTTs; 5) estimation of macroscopic-level statistical models for frequency and severity of rail-based crude oil release incidents; and 6) estimation of statistical models for types and consequences of rail-based crude oil release incidents. Some of the findings of this research include: train derailments increased hazmat release probability more than other incident types; non-collision CTT crashes were more likely to result in rollovers, while rolling over increased the likelihood of hazmat release; at HRGCs, flashing signal lights were associated with lower hazmat release probability from trucks; increase in volume and distance of crude oil shipped from one state to another led to greater frequency and severity of incidents between the two states; and in rail-based crude oil release incidents, non-accident releases were associated with higher probability of gas dispersion, and lower probability of fire and explosion. Based on the results, recommendations regarding policies and countermeasures for improving safety are provided

Statistical Investigation of Road and Railway Hazardous Materials Transportation Safety

Transportation of hazardous materials (hazmat) in the United States (U.S.) constituted 22.8% of the total tonnage transported in 2012 with an estimated value of more than 2.3 billion dollars. As such, hazmat transportation is a significant economic activity in the U.S. However, hazmat transportation exposes people and environment to the infrequent but potentially severe consequences of incidents resulting in hazmat release. Trucks and trains carried 63.7% of the hazmat in the U.S. in 2012 and are the major foci of this dissertation. The main research objectives were 1) identification and quantification of the effects of different factors on occurrence and consequences of hazmat-related incidents, towards identifying effective policies and countermeasures for improving safety and; 2) quantifying components of risk of hazmat transportation for costs prediction, planning purposes, or short-term decision-making. A comprehensive review of literature, study framework, and available data led to identification of six foci for this dissertation: 1) estimation of hazmat release statistical models for railroad incidents; 2) estimation of rollover and hazmat release statistical models for Cargo Tank Truck (CTT) crashes; 3) analyzing hazmat-involved crashes at highway-rail grade crossings (HRGCs); 4) model-based and non-model-based methods for classifying hazmat release from trains and CTTs; 5) estimation of macroscopic-level statistical models for frequency and severity of rail-based crude oil release incidents; and 6) estimation of statistical models for types and consequences of rail-based crude oil release incidents. Some of the findings of this research include: train derailments increased hazmat release probability more than other incident types; non-collision CTT crashes were more likely to result in rollovers, while rolling over increased the likelihood of hazmat release; at HRGCs, flashing signal lights were associated with lower hazmat release probability from trucks; increase in volume and distance of crude oil shipped from one state to another led to greater frequency and severity of incidents between the two states; and in rail-based crude oil release incidents, non-accident releases were associated with higher probability of gas dispersion, and lower probability of fire and explosion. Based on the results, recommendations regarding policies and countermeasures for improving safety are provided

Shipments of Oil by Rail: Economic Implications for Safety and Safety-Related Investments

DTRT13-G-UTC59Fracking technology has allowed for significant expansion of oil production in regions with limited oil pipeline capacity, such as the Bakken formation in North Dakota. These regions must compensate for the increase in oil production by expanding oil by rail shipments, specifically utilizing tanker cars. However, oil by rail shipments to the Eastern and Southern United States had declined in recent years. The present study utilizes U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts of Bakken oil production and oil by rail shipments through the year 2040. A linear programming model was developed to estimate the volume of state-to-state oil by rail shipments by analyzing release incident rates. In addition, the present study assesses the growth of rail release incident costs and explores how changes in release incident costs impact the economic feasibility of rail-related safety investments. The data implied a positive correlation between oil production and oil by rail shipments. Annual release incidents costs for hauling oil by rail will rise significantly in the future due to projected increases in oil production and rising release incident rates